In the race to fill the vacant 3rd Congressional district seat left by the expelled Rep. George Santos (R-NY), national issues are taking center stage. The special election on February 13th pits former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) against Republican Mazi Pilip, a county legislator, in a contest that could provide clues about voter sentiment heading into the 2024 elections.
Santos was removed from office earlier this year after admitting to fabricating parts of his resume and facing a federal criminal investigation. His seat, covering parts of Long Island and Queens, is seen as a bellwether district that could swing either Republican or Democrat.
The stakes are high, as a Democratic win would shrink the GOP’s slim House majority to just two votes, severely limiting their ability to advance legislation. Both parties are using the race as a testing ground for messaging and voter outreach ahead of the 2024 campaign cycle.
Suozzi is positioning himself as an experienced moderate, touting his ability to work across party lines during his previous tenure in Congress. He is hitting issues like abortion rights and the environment while avoiding directly attacking his opponent. Suozzi also talks up his strong support for Israel, a key issue in this heavily Jewish district.
Pilip, meanwhile, is running as a political outsider aligned with conservatives on fiscal and social issues. He is trying to link Suozzi to the Biden administration’s policies on crime and the economy. Pilip, an Ethiopian immigrant, is also counting on turning out the district’s growing Orthodox Jewish population that leans Republican.
Outside groups have poured millions into the race for advertisements. Democratic ads are focusing on abortion access and Pilip’s ties to former President Trump. Republican groups are spending heavily to portray Suozzi as a career politician and ally of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Turnout is expected to be low, so both sides are working urgently to motivate their bases. Democrats are organizing phone banks and door knocking focused largely in the Queens portion of the district. Republicans are rallying the Orthodox Jewish community and targeting Nassau County swing voters.
The election is being watched closely as a gauge of the national political climate. A Suozzi victory would boost Democrats’ hopes of regaining full control of Congress in 2024. A Pilip win would be a major morale boost for the GOP and demonstrate their momentum heading toward the next campaign cycle.
All eyes are on the 3rd District as voters head to the polls next week. The special election will provide important clues about how national issues are resonating with persuadable voters in a closely divided swing district. The results could foreshadow which party has the advantage in the high-stakes midterm elections next year.